Promote Ramsgate #truthwillout: statistics, more Statistics and damn lies

It is a generally used saying “statistics, more Statistics and damn lies” to mean statistics can prove most things but mathematics cannot lie, however it is in forecasting that statistics are mostly used incorrectly. None more so that in the work of fiction submitted to PINS by Riveroak Strategic Partners and written by Sally Dixon MBA PhD MRAeS of Azimuth Associates.

Sally’s 254 page report is based on a major misrepresentation of the facts and ignores the company's reason for submitting the DCO, namely a Cargo Hub and ignores the fact that they paid her for her report, however I digress. Let us go back to basics.

During the years 2006 to 2016 airfreight handled in the UK has increased by a paltry 2.58% (1.31 Million tonnes to 1.54 Million tonnes) which is ½ of 1% of all freight handled by the UK. Most comes in HGV’s or purpose built freighters to ports like Felixstowe, Southampton and Immingham. This is because the cost of airfreight is up to 4x more expensive that the other two methods.

Since 2000 the airfreight business has seen a 50% drop in dedicated aircargo freighter movements from 110,000 to 52000 (see below) and this at a time when airfreight has flatlined. Simply put freight forwarders have been cutting their costs by transporting cargo in the belly of passenger planes, the main beneficiary of this is Heathrow where the volume of freight has grown by 17.5% and where Gatwick has lost out as their volume dropped by 50% over the same time period.

Heathrow now handles two thirds of the UK’s airfreight (95% of which is belly hold) with the rest divided up amongst all other UK airports. The two largest are Stanstead and East Midlands where the business model is daytime passengers and night time is cargo. This model is working for them as they have grown their tonnage by 9.5% and 9% respectively, Both Stanstead and East Midlands have recently announced plans to expand and currently have spare capacity.

Sally Dixon’s statistics show a marked disregard for the basics of forecasting when she uses statements like “The importance of air travel is forecast to continue to grow, with 50% more flights in 2035 than there were in 2012, from around 9 million per year to 14.4 million (Eurocontrol, 2013). The freighter fleet is set to increase by 70% over the next 20 years while air cargo traffic more than doubles (Boeing, 2016b, p. 4).” When she knows that she refers to the worldwide growth in aviation which 1. Is not reflected in UK aviation and 2. Refers to, mainly, passenger growth. Boeing’s report is clearer when it reports on regions as follows, Cargo freighters reducing from 6% to 5% by 2037, Europe’s overall share reducing from 20% to 18%. Not the rosy picture Sally portrays in her submission.

Statistics can prove whatever you want especially when you use the statistics from one element (passenger growth) and displace them onto a different sector. Further she says that “The lack of availability in the UK for freighter slots, airports’ preference - in a constrained market - for passenger flights, and delays in loading and unloading freighter aircraft indicate airport capacity constraints, particularly in the South East, as a plausible explanation for the lower proportion of freighter to belly freight transport of goods in the UK compared to the rest of the world.” However the truth is so different as the following illustrations show:

Further she goes on to say “Without extra capacity in the South East, 2.1 million tonnes of freight would have to be diverted elsewhere (York Aviation, 2015, p. 19), mainly to Northern European airports.” Without a shred of proof and as the illustration above shows this simply isn’t true. It isn’t just a lay person thinking that here are just two excerpts from a aviation expert’s report examining Sally Dixon’s publication