Is reopening Manston as a freight hub a viable option

During the last 15 years every owner of Manston has tried but failed to make a profit from the freight business and despite money invested business has failed to take off (pardon the pun). Infertil Limited purchased Manston from the failed EUjet/Planestation/Wiggins group in 2005 and over the next 9 years invested £40-£50M and still failed to turn a profit. They threw in the towel and asked Price Waterhouse Cooper to find a buyer and in 22 months NOT ONE buyer from the aviation world came forward. Eventually they sold it to Ann Gloag’s Lothian Shelf for a £1 and all the debts.

What is airfreight and what is carried is a question asked. Airfreight is exceptionally expensive (unless subsidised by being carried in the belly of passenger planes) compared to road freight and cargo ships. So it is reserved for expensive “just in time” goods such as electronics and pharmaceuticals, and low value flowers and vegetables from 3^rd world countries where “time is of the essence”. 

During those years airfreight at Manston has only managed 1%-2% of the total UK airfreight business. 

 To put this into context total freight in the UK is around 500 Million tonnes and airfreight is a miniscule 2.3Million tonnes (1/2 of 1%) and Manston achieved at its busiest 32240 Tonnes (1.38% of airfreight, .006% of Total freight)

Manston has tried and failed to attract the dedicated freighters which are handled more efficiently at freight Hubs such as East Midlands, Stanstead, Luton and latterly at Southend all of which have spare capacity both now and into the future. “...The London Airports together currently have 40-50% spare capacity available”. In 2016 Heathrow brought in 65% of all airfreight (95% in the belly of passenger planes) leaving just 835000 tonnes for every other airport in the UK to share out. RSP propose to take 500-600 thousand tonnes (That is 72% of the available freighter market) and that from a standing start.

The question then becomes why are those airports much more successful in attracting the freight business and why hasn’t Manston managed in the last 15 years? The answer is geography. Any freighter bringing in cargo has a choice. Land at Manston 60 miles away from the M25 and negotiate the Dartford river crossing or add 10 minutes flying to Stanstead or Luton or 15 minutes to East Midlands where there are major motorway links, Road links and central distribution hubs to complement the airports. I have ignored Heathrow as has RSP as the cost of transhipping freight is subsidised by passengers which is why 65% of all airfreight goes to Heathrow.

When Manston was operational they handled about 2 freighters a week sometimes less, mainly African produce and it is hard to see how they would be able to attract business unless they cut the landing costs again which seems to be the only way they could attract business. Listening to those that worked there it becomes apparent that most freighters left empty and without refueling because there were airports with export freight and cheaper fuel.

There is a series of reports by Dr. Sally Dixon which paint a far more upbeat prospect for Manston however this is based on World Wide expansion of freight which doesn’t relate at all to the UK which at the time of writing has achieved 2.3 Million tonnes of freight consistently for every year from 2007 to 2017. Dr Sally Dixon believes that much export freight is loaded into Lorries and goes out of the country to the near continent to be loaded onto aircraft. The report explains this by saying there is a lack of freight capacity in the UK which is complete nonsense. (See above). Since 1999 there have been many promotional forecasts, the only consistency is that they all failed to achieve what they promised.

Actual best year was 2003 at 43000 tonnes

In 2010 Freighter Air Transport movements (ATM’s) totaled 51000 and by 2015 this had increased to 55000 movements and increase of 1.5% per year. The Department of Transport forecast this to grow to 60000 movements by 2050 which equates to just ¼% per year. In other words it will be flatlined for 35 years and this may even be optimistic if more cargo is shipped in the belly of passenger planes.

"The UK demand for all air freight remained flat from 2003 to 2013, furthermore, the UK totals for 2015 (2,299,000 tonnes) and 2016 (2,385,000 tonnes) confirm that pattern has been maintained over at least the last 13 years. The contribution by Manston showed no growth and hovered between 1.2% and 1.5% of all airfreight. It was a minor player in the freight market throughout its operation.

 CAA statistics show the split between the quantity by weight of incoming (known as ‘set-down’) and outgoing (‘pick-up’) cargo. It shows there was a highly skewed imbalance in favour of import over export tonnage.

 99% of freight was carried by non-UK operators.
 92% of freight was set-down
 7% was pick-up
This imbalance would have severely affected the efficiency and profitability of carriers. This picture suggests that there was a lack of UK market demand to ‘export’ freight by air from Manston or that other operational factors were having an impact.
In 2013 the airfreight handled at Manston was 29,306 tonnes. Analysis of CAA statistics shows this was carried via 511 dedicated freight aircraft ATMs. On average therefore each ATM accounted for
57.4 tonnes of cargo. On the assumption that there are equal numbers of inbound and outbound ATMs it is possible to derive the average payload of each given the recorded set-down and pick-up tonnages. On this basis the average ‘set-down’ payload was 106.4 tonnes; and the average pick-up payload was a mere 8.5 tonnes. In other words set-down aircraft were arriving heavily laden but, in many cases, departing empty." * report by The Ramsgate Society

What about the planes used to carry Freight

"The freight ‘workhorse’ Boeing 747-400F requires a take-off field length ranging from 9,250 feet to 10,950 feet (depending on range, payload and overall weight). This poses a serious problem for the future of Manston with its runway at 9029 feet in length. While it may be sufficient to land fully laden aircraft it is not capable of handling this market leading freight aircraft at maximum take-off weight. This puts Manston at a considerable commercial disadvantage compared to its competitor airports in the UK. Manston ranks only 11th in terms of the length of runway in the UK, and behind leading
dedicated freighter traffic rivals East Midlands and Stansted. It makes it unattractive to air freight operators. The relatively short runway explains why, historically, there has been very little pick-up tonnage over previous years of operation undermining efficiency and contributing to a lack of any profitability."

So understand this we need to understand that most flights to Manston were full and most flights out were empty. In 2013 this for reference, there were 511 air freight ATMs at Manston, accounting for 29,306 tonnes of freight. The 747-400F can carry 105 tonnes so assuming most were full 300 flights either landed or took off with an average load of 95 tonnes.
The total annual UK weight of cargo carried by dedicated air freighters 715,000 tonnes (at 2016 levels source CAA);

Therefore assuming by year 6 RSP (Sally Dixon's figures) 10000 ATM's will be reached and assuming every flight landed full and left empty then by 2016 Manston would achieve a total tonnage of  475000 tonnes which is 2/3rds of the total tonnage of dedicated freighters. Absolute rubbish.

 The Ramsgate Society has done extensive research into Manston and its problems however what seems to come out of this is someone is embellishing the true position. If you look at Sally Dixon's figures below they envisage a freighter carrying an average of  18 tonnes of cargo whereas a 747-400F can carry 106 Tonnes an absolutely massive difference.

The last point which will put the final nail into this coffin is the cost of reinstating the airport. Various figures have been bandied about but according to Dr. Beau Webber this is around £300M. As an accountant and Financial Adviser for more than 25 years this business model will make the airport noncompetitive and inflexible because this amount will incur repayments of both Capital and Interest costs which landing fees and ancillary business will have to cover before running costs. As an example check out the Channel Tunnel which had similar issues and escaped from its financial dead weight by going bankrupt.

FYI Julian Eagle

Is this the level of debate that gets your ego stroked then Julian?

There is an advantage of living where I do. Red Arrows performing at the end of Cowes week