Riveroak's 5 year plan

In 2014 when Riveroak was attempting to get the previous Labour administration to select them as CPO partners they were asked to provide some evidence of their business plans. To deal with this Riveroak devised a spreadsheet and sent it to TDC. This spreadsheet was also sent to Price Waterhouse Coopers as part of the evidence. As no further evidence of their plans have been forthcoming since, the spreadsheet will have to do.

On the same spreadsheet the figures are based on the first 18 months of trading extrapolated to 5 years on the screenshot above.
Turns mean the average number of plans landing daily so when you read turns you have to double it for take off and landings. Also what is ignored is the HGV's needed to offload the cargo. A fully laden 747 requires 4-5 HGV's to fully offload the cargo.
This projection is based on 12 "known carriers" however Manston has never had 12 different carriers at any time in its life.
The costs do not include "CAPEX" (capital expenditure) which have been estimated by a Riveroak spokesperson at £20M, neither are the interest payments on this or any other sum included which is certainly remiss of Riveroak.
CAPEX is included as a separate item however there are some oddities here. The fuel farm, for instance is inoperable so will have to be replaced, so the £800K is far below what it would cost to replace.

Staffing levels are based on previous levels at Manston according to this spreadsheet so it must be presumed that Tony Freudmann is likely to have input into this spreadsheet however he was last at Manston during the Planestation crash 'n burn so whether he has experience of an actual Freight Hub is debatable.

Basically after 18 months of trading Riveroak anticipate an average 3.69 turns a day with a staffing level of 82. So they would expect nearly double the workload with 62 less staff, doesn't really make sense does it. When Manston closed the headcount was 144 people made redundant. I also have it on good authority from a redundant worker they struggled on 2 turns a day.

Based on this cashflow statement Riveroak expect to be profitable in year 4 however the CAPEX has been understated, the headcount is understated and the revenue includes profit from refueling the aircraft something that Manston has been unable to do as prior history says they have not been economical enough and most planes refueled elsewhere. Then there is the problem with not having a fuel farm and bringing all fuel onto the airfield in tankers which have to trek down the Thanet Way.

Finally by year 4 they expect 7200 turns a year which is one plane every 1/2hr during a normal working day. That is a fully laden 747 coming into Manston 800 feet over Ramsgate every 30 minutes 360 days a year something that would mean 80 fully laden HGV's leaving Manston 360 days a year and the same coming the other way (and tankers bringing in the AVgas and leaving empty) without a benefit to Ramsgate bar noise and particulate pollution.
Footnote
 Message for Adem Mehmet: Thanks for posting the link to my blog on the only supporter page you can post on seeing as you have been banned from all the others. In this case, however, the figures aren't suspect unless you do not believe Riveroak. For those that do not know Adem he is hardly a supporter of Ramsgate as this is his opinion.