Tuesday 10 November 2015

Riveroak's 5 year plan

In 2014 when Riveroak was attempting to get the previous Labour administration to select them as CPO partners they were asked to provide some evidence of their business plans. To deal with this Riveroak devised a spreadsheet and sent it to TDC. This spreadsheet was also sent to Price Waterhouse Coopers as part of the evidence. As no further evidence of their plans have been forthcoming since, the spreadsheet will have to do.
On the same spreadsheet the figures are based on the first 18 months of trading extrapolated to 5 years on the screenshot above.
Turns mean the average number of plans landing daily so when you read turns you have to double it for take off and landings. Also what is ignored is the HGV's needed to offload the cargo. A fully laden 747 requires 4-5 HGV's to fully offload the cargo.
This projection is based on 12 "known carriers" however Manston has never had 12 different carriers at any time in its life.
The costs do not include "CAPEX" (capital expenditure) which have been estimated by a Riveroak spokesperson at £20M, neither are the interest payments on this or any other sum included which is certainly remiss of Riveroak.
CAPEX is included as a separate item however there are some oddities here. The fuel farm, for instance is inoperable so will have to be replaced, so the £800K is far below what it would cost to replace.
Staffing levels are based on previous levels at Manston according to this spreadsheet so it must be presumed that Tony Freudmann is likely to have input into this spreadsheet however he was last at Manston during the Planestation crash 'n burn so whether he has experience of an actual Freight Hub is debatable.
Basically after 18 months of trading Riveroak anticipate an average 3.69 turns a day with a staffing level of 82. So they would expect nearly double the workload with 62 less staff, doesn't really make sense does it. When Manston closed the headcount was 144 people made redundant. I also have it on good authority from a redundant worker they struggled on 2 turns a day.
Based on this cashflow statement Riveroak expect to be profitable in year 4 however the CAPEX has been understated, the headcount is understated and the revenue includes profit from refueling the aircraft something that Manston has been unable to do as prior history says they have not been economical enough and most planes refueled elsewhere. Then there is the problem with not having a fuel farm and bringing all fuel onto the airfield in tankers which have to trek down the Thanet Way.

Finally by year 4 they expect 7200 turns a year which is one plane every 1/2hr during a normal working day. That is a fully laden 747 coming into Manston 800 feet over Ramsgate every 30 minutes 360 days a year something that would mean 80 fully laden HGV's leaving Manston 360 days a year and the same coming the other way (and tankers bringing in the AVgas and leaving empty) without a benefit to Ramsgate bar noise and particulate pollution.
Footnote
 Message for Adem Mehmet: Thanks for posting the link to my blog on the only supporter page you can post on seeing as you have been banned from all the others. In this case, however, the figures aren't suspect unless you do not believe Riveroak. For those that do not know Adem he is hardly a supporter of Ramsgate as this is his opinion.

40 comments:

  1. They have to be kidding with the Fuel Farm [FF] and Fire and Rescue costs. The FF would need planning permissions and given that Manston Green is in the way, TDC would have to deal with the SPZ, i very much doubt that this would stand up to any scrutiny!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stand up for scrutiny,It would if and thats a big IF,we know who had their way.

      Delete
  2. Doesn't sound dissimilar to Infratils night flights plans that were approved by Bayford as senior figure in Ezekiel regime. Iris approved those too...and Wells and Gale. And apart from confirmation of the money support these?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Good work Barry...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Barry you need to check your ratings for Orix Corporation.

      Delete
    2. I think Adem Mehmet is spot on any councillor who supports the airport is prepared to sacrifice Ramsgate. Is he a councillor ?

      Delete
    3. Read the next blog anon 19:49

      Delete
  4. Humpty Dumpty says Spot On Barry,and 19:43.
    And for their next trick?
    We have.....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Who is humpty dumpty?

      Delete
    2. I Humpty Dumpty do state that on the----2014 did find out Gale/Freudmann and gang! Thats who Humpty Dumpty is!
      You'll have to wait i'm afraid for the national news reports about SHP/manston court case,involving every body todo with the trick to Rob the poor! I could say you would'nt Belive it,wait and see,Every fact document ect will be in court and then made public.
      The greatest good to the greatest number!.

      Delete
    3. Spot on Barry but I must say so is Adem Mehmet saying that any councillor who supports the airport is condemning Ramsgate, damn right they are but most of them don't live in Ramsgate so are prepared to sacrifice it for their gain, cheap easy flights to their holiday homes no doubt.

      Delete
    4. Revenue growth looks amazing. Any idea what the business value would be at the end of year 5 when it would need to be sold to provide return to investors Barry ?

      Delete
    5. Can't tell from Adem Mehmets post on the various sites whether he's pro airport or a secret anti. What do you think Barry. Most of his comments could be read either way, maybe that's why he's banned from the pro sites as you point out although he's not on any of the anti sites I'm on either but I only recently joined as I did with the pro sites too ha ha

      Delete
    6. Great post on there today re the new investors. You'll never believe who they are.

      Delete
    7. Barry, any insight on the new buyers of Manston

      Delete
    8. Looks like RO are out as another more serious investor has now come forward.

      Delete
    9. Barry, what's the process for getting stuff posted on here, I've written a few things which have not appeared but down no if it's my ineptness or you blocking them

      Delete
    10. Everything except spam and abusive comments get published however baiting the author gets deleted. Pop your name on the post and take a chance

      Delete
  5. A public vote of no confidence needed?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why anon seems Chris is doing a good job of protecting Thanet's assets

      Delete
  6. Well argued Barry. Can Manston support two turnarounds of that capacity an hour ? And that many AVTUR tankers a day ? I don't think so.

    It looks as if it is a Mr Micawber business plan aimed at acquiring Manston for a different purpose within five years of their prospective ownership ?



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Manston viability was always night flights cargo and a few flights to Spain to keep the peasants happy. And in a big shiny construction project.

      Delete
    2. lyndon do you know who this Hnmpty dumpty is please.

      Delete
    3. look out theres a quiz night coming to Mr Wells and others,A Quiz!should be more of a find the Truth night,with all documents present by all concerd with the matter.So the CPO is stopped and Jobs begin ASAP.
      Well thats what Humpty Dumpty thinks,but what do I know in matters of local Goverment,Quite a bit!,but you would have to ask Gale what Humpty Dumpty knows,I Know!

      Delete
    4. No anon 1835. Reputedly he fell off a wall last I heard. There is one chap who likes his sprinkling of exclamation marks (Obviously ex Chatham House) he ain't Humpty as Humpty can't spell too well and uses ect instead of etc etc.

      I wonder if Humpty has a kilt ?

      Delete
    5. The accounts you quote from are quite old. Can you display those for 2014 or are they not available. Do you have the P&L too ?

      Delete
    6. This is a spreadsheet with projections for 5 years. I think you are asking on the wrong blog

      Delete
    7. Ello Lyndon,Yea me o mucka,can'nt spell to save me life,maybe its becoz im a Londoner that I love Ramsgate town.
      So kilt no¡ect!. Would you be a English techer by any chance?!

      Delete
    8. Whots Chatham House?,please Lyndon.
      And when Humpty hit the ground he spilled his guts,i.e,The magic circle of Gale/Freudmann etc ect.I got a gander of the Master plan and thay know I Know.I know the trick of their trade! Like most tricks simple when your shown like I was/woz.
      Pardon the pun,this is a Jumbo one.
      Regards Humpty.


      Delete
    9. Well scrutiny tomorrow and then it will be all over

      Delete
    10. So RO are out for the moments and discussions taking place with other investors with aviation experience and proper money in the bank. Where were they two years ago ?

      Delete
    11. I think I will wait and see before backing any further speculators

      Delete
  7. A Pub lic vote on no Con fidence, You Sure!
    13:35.Mr Micawber would I feel like the airpot/moneypot,for lovely local travel ect,But how would he feel When,its full up with riveroaks cheap housing estate and renamed Riveroaks,with no Oak trees,and Freudmann Lane,Marsh Way,Gale End ect.It will be to late then,Riveroak will be back home Marsh will be upgrading his Jag,and Sir Roger Gale will be sitting in his gaff in France while Freudmann will be let lose with packets of money to get upto even more Tricks,which would make a bigger danger to the public than he already is!
    The Airport/Houses is like which came first the chicken or the egg,Chicken/Egg = Oorrible Houses thanks to River no oak Trees.
    So Humpty Dumpty says!

    ReplyDelete
  8. Gale End and Wells Culldesacked.

    Mackinlay Alley in Chatham. Why is he even bothering to pretend he is from Ramsgate?

    Has Homer sued Gale yet with our taxes?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think Mrs Homer should sue Gale I'd chip in so it didn't come from taxes,and I think Mrs Homer is a Lawyer,which would make it somewhat more easy!She should also deal with the threats from other people aswell,I'd chip in there aswell!

      Delete
  9. Manston finished but Driver highlights plans for 15000 new homes...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anon you are simply wrong. The Local Plan calls for 15660 new DWELLINGS by 2031 and of that nearly 4000 have been granted PP and some of that building is already progressing. So please be kind enough to research before you post

      Delete
    2. Nonsense Barry its on Drivers blog. But do explain what you mean by dwellings or houses? You then confirm 4k of 16k are being built. ...

      Delete
    3. Anon are you being funny? And if you do not understand the difference between a dwelling and a house you obviously don't live in a flat

      Delete
  10. No forecast for monitoring costs or pollution cleanup?

    ReplyDelete